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第二節 後續研究建議
俄美關係的變化為國際關係中的重要環節之一,持續追蹤兩國的雙邊關係仍 為一重要工作,各大重要國際議題都將影響俄美關係的發展。本文最大的研究限 制在於兩大重大事件仍屬持續進行,兼併克里米亞一事雖可屬告一段落,但後續 影響仍未結束,俄美之間的制裁仍然維持實施,烏克蘭東部的狀況也尚未明朗,
衝突接近凍結,但是和平解決方案尚未產生。同時,在經濟層面上,以更多經濟 指標與數據就制裁所造成的影響進行分析,也是未來研究可以進行的方向。政治 方面,俄羅斯兼併克里米亞的過程,是否合於國際法與俄羅斯國內法,也是值得 討論的課題。
另一方面,敘利亞內戰趨於終點,在筆者完稿時,伊斯蘭國勢力幾乎已完全 退出敘利亞,普丁更在 2017 年 12 月 11 日出訪俄羅斯位於敘利亞的空軍基地,
並宣布在與伊斯蘭國的戰事上獲取成功,將撤出大量俄羅斯部隊。追蹤俄羅斯將 如何在後續扮演協調者的角色,以及俄美使否藉由在敘利亞議題上達成共識,因 而些許改善關係,將是可以關注的重點。
最後,普丁宣布將參選 2018 年 3 月的總統大選,這可能是普丁執政生涯的 最後一步,如果再次勝選,普丁將持續執政至 2024 年,屆時滿 72 歲,普丁最後 的執政將對其歷史定位有重大影響,普丁在卸任前將如何處理俄美關係,未來 6 年的施政,為可觀察的重點。另外,川普於 2017 年 12 月 18 日發表了「國家安 全戰略」(National Security Strategy),文件中將俄羅斯與中國視為對手,並進行 批評。在川普的領導下,俄美兩國將有何種發展,也是相當值得關注的一點。
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Clinton, David W., The Two Faces of National Interest, Baton Rouge, La.: Louisiana State University Press, 1994.
Donaldson, Robert H., The Foreign Policy of Russia: Changing Systems, Enduring
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Misperceptions, New York: Routledge, 2013.
Tsygankov, Andrei P., Russia's Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National
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Ziser, Eyal, Asad's Legacy: Syria in transition, London: Hurst & Company, 2001.
(二)期刊文章
Spechler, Dina Rome, “Russian Foreign Policy During the Putin Presidency: The Impact of Competing Approaches,” Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 57, No.
5, 2010. pp. 35-40.
Suslov, Dmitry, “US-Russia Confrontation and a New Global Balance,” Strategic
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International Affairs, Volume 91, Issue 3, 2015. pp. 505-538.
(三)網路資料
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<http://carnegie.ru/2016/06/21/russian-foreign-and-security-policy-pub-63860#
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Kureev, Artem, “Decoding the changes in Russia's new foreign policy concept,”
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(四)俄羅斯官方資訊
Annual News Conference (2012-2016)
2012, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17173>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2014, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47250>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2015, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50971>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2016, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
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Federal State Statistic Service, External trade of the Russian Federation with other
countries. Available at:
<http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/en/figures/activities/
> (Accessed: 2017/10/23)
Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (2008, 2013, 2016)
2008 version. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116> (Accessed:
2017/2/21)
2013 version. Available at:
<http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/Cpt
ICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186> (Accessed: 2017/1/30)
2016 version. Available at:
<http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/Cpt
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National Security Concept of the Russian Federation (2015). Available at:
<http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Ru
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Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly (2008-2016)
2008, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/1968>
(Accessed: 2017/8/17)
2009, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/5979 (Accessed: 2017/8/13)
2010, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/9637>
(Accessed: 2017/8/4)
2011, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/14088>
(Accessed: 2017/8/3)
2012, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825>
(Accessed: 2017/8/2)
2013, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825>
(Accessed: 2017/7/31)
2014, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47173>
(Accessed: 2017/7/30)
2015, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50864>
(Accessed: 2017/7/29)
2016, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53379>
(Accessed: 2017/7/29)
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(Accessed: 2017/7/5)
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N a tio na
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The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2014). Available at:
<https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029> (Accessed: 2017/6/29)
二、中文
(一)專書
李明主編,普欽執政下的俄羅斯,臺北市:五南,2015。
約翰.米爾斯海默(John Mearsheimer)著,王義桅、唐小松譯,大國政治的悲 劇,台北市:麥田,2014。
周煦,敘利亞史:以阿和平的關鍵國,臺北市:三民,2003。
倪世雄,當代國際關係理論,第二版,臺北市:五南,2010。
趙竹成,「徘徊在歸附與自決之間─烏克蘭東部與克里米亞的選擇」,收錄於洪泉 湖主編,當代歐洲民族運動:從蘇格蘭獨立公投到克里米亞危機,臺北市:
聯經,2017,頁 101-128。
張亞中,國際關係總論,第二版,臺北市:揚智文化,2007。
鄭欽模,重返強權:俄羅斯國家安全政策變革之研究(1989-2019),臺北市:翰蘆 圖書,2016
薛興國,俄羅斯國家安全理論與實踐,北京市:時事出版社,2011。
(二)期刊文章
卡拉干諾夫(Sergei Karaganov)、博爾達切夫(Timofei Bordachev)、蘇斯洛夫
(Dmitry Suslov),「重建而非僅僅重啟:對美關係中的俄羅斯利益」,俄羅斯 研究,第 5 期,2009,頁 13-33。
汪哲仁,「俄羅斯軍事介入敘利亞之原因與未來發展」,戰略安全研析,125 期,
2015,頁 23-31。
李群英,「中俄『攜手』制衡美國-軍事打擊敘利亞」,海峽評論,274 期,2013,
頁 22-25。
李群英,「美國『重返亞洲』與美俄冷戰-美俄角力敘利亞:新冷戰的到來?」, 海峽評論,267 期,2013,頁 28-33。
林子立,「美歐俄在敘利亞議題之競爭關係」,全球政治評論,52 期,2015,頁
‧
期,2015,頁 123-137。梁強,「從近鄰政策到向東看:烏克蘭危機與普京的戰略決策」,外交評論,2015
‧ 國
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N a tio na
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碩士論文,2016。
陳怡君,俄羅斯對美國政策之研究-2000 年∼2003 年。國立政治大學,俄羅斯研 究所,碩士論文,2002。
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2014
3 月 16 日:克里米亞獨立公投。
3 月:俄羅斯兼併克里米亞。
3 月 24 日:俄羅斯被凍結 G8 會籍。
6 月 4-5 日:第 40 屆 G8 原定於俄羅斯索契(Sochi)舉辦,移至歐盟首府布魯塞爾舉行。
2015
5 月:俄羅斯關閉「北方運補網」(Northern distribution network,NDN)。
9 月 27-28 日:普丁出訪紐約,參加聯合國 70 週年大會,與歐巴馬會面。
9 月 30 日:俄羅斯杜馬同意出兵敘利亞。
11 月 14-17 日,土耳其安卡拉 G20:普丁與歐巴馬 30 分鐘會談。(討論打擊伊斯蘭國、其 他恐怖組織以及解決敘利亞內戰)。
2016 12 月:歐巴馬指示情報單位檢視俄羅斯干預美國總統大選的證據。
12 月 29 日:美國驅逐俄羅斯駐於華盛頓的 35 名外交人員。