第四章 中國大陸與印度銀行自由化的比較分析
第四節 研究限制與建議
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第四節 研究限制與建議
本研究的限制及未來的研究建議有以下幾點:
一、中國大陸與印度銀行部門的相關統計數據的可信度仍待精進。例如國有銀行不 良貸款的統計,中國大陸的不良貸款的認定標準相較於國際標準較寬鬆。雖然近年來的 統計方式已向國際標準看齊,但是仍有落差,因此,國際金融市場的評比機構,對於中 國大陸及印度銀行的評比與建議中,其中最重要的一項就是要求要提高透明度。因此,
僅管本研究的相關資料是以兩國央銀行的統計數據及金融監管機關的年報作為參考數 據。仍不免有可信度的問題。雖然仍可參考國際建制如國際貨幣基金、世界銀行及國際 清算銀行的統計數據作為參考,唯國際建制所提供的資料,針對各別國家細部統計的項 目較為有限。
二、本研究受限於研究經費與時間,未能前往個案的地區與國家進行實地的訪問與 調查,這對於銀行部門改革政策的分析難免有不足之處。爾後若繼續進一步的研究,可 以採取田野調查的方式,針對國有銀行、民營銀行、外商銀行、當地的官員、學者或智 庫,進行質化的訪問調查,相信對於改革的全貌及政策制定的過程將有更多經驗證據的 發現。
三、本研究是從政治的面向切入進行政治經濟途徑的分析,但是研究範圍仍顯得太 大,致使細部問題的分析有所不足。雖然國際貨幣基金、世界銀行與亞洲開發銀行,對 於中國大陸與印度銀行部門的改革與發展,已經累積相當多的政策分析與建議,但是大 都偏向於金融技術層面的分析。筆者建議未來的研究除了可以運用政治經濟學相關的理 論進行研究外,應該要降低個案比較的層次或縮小比較的範圍。並可以利用統計分析的 方法就主要的變項進行模型分析,這對於理論的檢證將會有更大的貢獻。
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