第六章 結論與建議
第一節 結論與發現
四、 後續研究建議
(一)、企業建模涵蓋的範圍很廣，由一個人完成是相當吃力的工作，本論 文區分為五個模組，雖然已相當完整，但是在論文更細膩的部份可以 再深入的設計，例如『Table function 的設計』，可以再將變數間的關係 細分出來，將變數彼此間的線流圖建立出模式，如此模型才會更讓人 信服。
(二)、本模型已將重要的硬性變數建構完整，但是軟性變數的使用有限，
建議後面的學習者，可以本模組為架構再發展更多的軟性變數，如向 心力、危機意識、員工士氣、決心、文化、….等。
(三)、企業要能成長、長青，才有機會與夥伴們共利，正如個案公司的經 營理念一樣。建議後續的研究者針對『有效市場的擴張』可進行更多 的研究，企業要成長不外乎是「產品」與「市場」的擴大，究竟要選 擇「產品發展」、「市場滲透」、「多角化」、「市場發展」….等的哪一種
方式，端視企業的Vision、Cuture、Capacity…等之間的搭配，其中有 不少高層主管的心智模式需要深入的探討，這類議題的軟性變數會變 的相當重要。企業唯有不斷地提昇其營運的價值，才有機會處於不敗 之地；相對地，企業為了不衰退而擴張，雖然是轉機，但很容易就會 陷入惡性競爭而不能自拔。
(四)、企業面對『外部競爭』是相當重要的議題，對手的種類與屬性，企 業要如何面對與因應？電子業要求生產速度快、不斷降價、產品生命 週期縮短引發的環保議題……等現象，為了追求更低廉的生產成本，
電子組裝製造業已漸漸成為逐水草而居的遊牧民族，這類有趣的議題 值得探討。
(五)、企業還是要回歸到營運的本質，不要一直推動業績成長環路，而要 推動提昇競爭力的環路，不論是成本的改善，技術層次的增長，這些 都能讓企業穩中求勝，讓企業保有足夠的競爭力，生存的更有價值與 尊嚴。
參考文獻
英文部份
Forrester, Jay W., (1961). Industrial Dynamics, Cambridge, Mass: The M.I.T. Press.
Forrester, Jay W., (1968). Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment.
Industrial Management Review (MIT), Vol. 9, NO 2, pp.83-105.
Forrester, Jay W., (1975) A New Corporation Design, Industrial Management Review (MIT), Vol. 7, NO 1, pp.5-17.
Lyneis, James M., (1980) Corporate Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach, Mass: The M.I.T. Press
Richmond, Barry et al., i-think User’s Guid. Hanover, NH. : High Performance System, Inc., 1991.
Sterman, J. D., (1994) Learning in and Complex Systems, System Dynamics Review, 10(2),pp.291-330.
Sterman, J. D., (2000) Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw-Hill Higher Education (A Division of The McGraw-Hill Companies).
Richard L. Daft (2004) Organization Theory and Design, South-Western (A Division of Thomson Learning)
中文部份
Chris Agyris, Robert Putnam, & Diana McLain Smith 著，夏林清譯，行動科學，遠 流，2000。
Peter M. Senge 著，郭進隆譯，楊碩英審訂，第五項修練—學習型組織的藝術與 實務，天下文化，1994。
伍忠賢著，鴻海藍圖，五南圖書，2006。
個案公司出版股東會年報，1991~2006。
陶在樸，系統動態學，五南圖書出版公司，1999。
陳加屏，系統基模及企業模組式系統動力學建模輔助教材之設計，國立中山大學 企業管理研究所，碩士論文，1991。
屠益民，系統動力學理論與應用，中山大學資管系上課講義。
陳家樂、劉信宏，在EMS 潮流下電子組裝設備產業發展趨勢與商機探討，工業 技術研究院，2004。
張殿文著，虎與狐，郭台銘的全球競爭策略，天下遠見，2005。
楊碩英，台電長期策略規劃模擬模型之研究期末報告，2002。
電路板資訊雜誌，第七十八期，1994 年 7 月 15 日出版。
羅世輝，以系統動力學探討競爭性技術主流突現之動態性過程，國立中山大學企 業管理研究所未出版博士論文，1999。
蘇懋康，系統動力學原理與應用，上海交通大學，1988。
附錄一：個案公司企業建模方程式與變數彙集
A.方程式系統 (依程式編號排序)
編號 方程式
(1,L) POO1(t) = POO1(t - dt) + (POR - PAR1) * dt (1.1,N) INIT POO1 = 100000
(2,R) POR = PRF+PCA
(3,R) PAR1 = POO1/(1/3*PSDT)
(4,L) POO2(t) = POO2(t - dt) + (PAR1 - PAR2) * dt (4.1,N) INIT POO2 = 100000
(5,R) PAR2 = POO2/(1/3*PSDT)
(6,L) POO3(t) = POO3(t - dt) + (PAR2 - PAR) * dt (6.1,N) INIT POO3 = 100000
(7,L) PINV(t) = PINV(t - dt) + (PAR - PR) * dt (7.1,N) INIT PINV = 100000
(8,R) PAR = POO3/(1/3*PSDT)
(9.L) WIP1(t) = WIP1(t - dt) + (PR - PC1) * dt (9.1,N) INIT WIP1 = 100000
(10,R) PR = DPR*EPILPR (11,R) PC1 = WIP1/(1/3*MT)
(12,L) WIP2(t) = WIP2(t - dt) + (PC1 - PC2) * dt (12.1,N) INIT WIP2 = 100000
(13,R) PC2 = WIP2/(1/3*MT)
(14,L) WIP3(t) = WIP3(t - dt) + (PC2 - PC - Failure) * dt (14.1,N) INIT WIP3 = 100000
(15,R) PC = WIP3/(1/3*MT)
(16,L) FI(t) = FI(t - dt) + (PC + TRR - SRS) * dt (16.1,N) INIT FI = 2000000
(17,R) SRS = MIN(FI,BLO)/ST (17.1,C) ST=1
(18,A) POO = POO1+POO2+POO3 (19,A) WIP = WIP1+WIP2+WIP3
(23,A) PRF = FORCST( (IF PR=0 THEN DPR ELSE PR),4,PSDT) (23.1,C) PSDT = 2
編號 方程式 (25,A) POOG = PRF*PSDT
(26,A) PIG = PRF*DWPI (26.1,C) DWPI = 2
(27,A) POC = POOG-POO (28,A) PIC = PIG-PINV
(29,A) PCA = (PIC+POC)/TPCA (29.1,C) TPCA = 1
(31,A) FIG = COR*SWFI (31.1,C) SWFI = 2
(32,A) FIC = FIG-(FI+WFRP) (33,A) WIPG = COR*MT (33.1,C) MT = 2
(34,A) WIPC = WIPG-WIP
(35,A) FCA = (FIC+WIPC)/TFCA (35.1,C) TFCA = 1
(36,A) PPR = FCA+COR (37,A) PFU = CE*FUG*PUE (37.1,A) FUG = 1.2
(38,A) SPR = MIN(PPR,PFU)*EPILSP (38.1,T)
EPILSP = GRAPH(PWSPI) (0.00, 0.2), (0.3, 0.49), (0.6, 0.675), (0.9, 0.785), (1.20, 0.865), (1.50, 0.915), (1.80, 0.95), (2.10, 0.975), (2.40, 0.99), (2.70, 1.00), (3.00, 1.00)
(39,L) WSPI(t) = WSPI(t - dt) + (WSPIF - PWSPI) * dt (39.1,N) INIT WSPI = 0
(40,R) WSPIF = IF(DPR=0) then 0 else (PINV/DPR) (41,R) PWSPI = WSPI/TPWSPI
(41.1,C) TPWSPI = 1.5
(42,A) EWT = MIN(MOR,SPR/TP) (42.1,C) MOR = 1.5
(43,A) DPR = TP*EWT
(44,A) EPILPR = IF PINV/DPR<Ltock THEN 0 ELSE 1 (44.1,C) Lstock = 0.4
編號 方程式
(45,L) WFRP(t) = WFRP(t - dt) + (Failure - TRR) * dt (45.1,N) INIT WFRP = 0
(46,R) Failure = WIP3*FR
(47,R) TRR = (WFRP*RRE)/TRT (47.1,A) TRT = MAX(4,RR*4) (47.2,A) RR = Rookie/Expert (48,A) FR = (1-EPQY)
(50,L) AC(t) = AC(t - dt) + (CRAC + CCR - CAR) * dt (50.1,N) INIT AC = 100
(51,R) CRAC = (DAM-AMS)/TCAC (52,R) CAR = (MSBA+ABA)*EOSM
(53,L) CB(t) = CB(t - dt) + (CAR + OAAR - OCR - CLR) * dt (53.1,N) INIT CB = 20
(54,R) OCR = CB/POD (54.1,C) POD = 12
(55,L) RC(t) = RC(t - dt) + (OCR - OAAR - CCR) * dt (55.1,N) INIT RC = 0
(56,R) CCR = RC*(1-BL) (57,A) BL = ABL
(58,L) CL(t) = CL(t - dt) + (CLR) * dt (58.1,N) INIT CL = 0
(59,R) CLR = (CB*NCLR)/TCCL (59.1,C) NCLR = 0.1
(59.2,C) TCCL = 78
(60,A) AMS = RC+AC+CB
(61,T)
PRR = GRAPH(MIN(P,CP)) (100, 1.50), (125, 1.50), (150, 1.48), (175, 1.44), (200, 1.38), (225, 1.23), (250, 0.974), (275, 0.616), (300, 0.441), (325, 0.337), (350, 0.252), (375, 0.22), (400, 0.2)
(62,A) DAM = PM*PRR (62.1,C) PM = 500
(65,T)
EOSM = GRAPH(AC/AMS)(0.00, 0.005), (0.09, 0.38), (0.18, 0.61), (0.27, 0.735), (0.36, 0.815), (0.45, 0.865), (0.54, 0.92), (0.63, 0.955), (0.72, 0.98), (0.81, 0.99), (0.9, 1.00)
編號 方程式 (66,A) MSBA = SM*SP
(67,A) ABA = CB*AAE (68,T)
AAE = GRAPH(CCFA)(0.8, 0.0015), (0.845, 0.005), (0.89, 0.009), (0.935, 0.0165), (0.98, 0.0295), (1.03, 0.0515), (1.07, 0.0695), (1.12, 0.086), (1.16, 0.0965), (1.20, 0.1), (1.25, 0.1) (69,L) CCFA(t) = CCFA(t - dt) + (CCCR) * dt
(69.1,N) INIT CCFA = 0.85 (69.1,T)
ABL = GRAPH(CCFA)(0.5, 0.00), (0.535, 0.02), (0.57, 0.04), (0.605, 0.07), (0.64, 0.12), (0.675, 0.18), (0.71, 0.25), (0.745, 0.35), (0.78, 0.5), (0.815, 0.7), (0.85, 1.00)
(70,R) CCCR = (ACA-CCFA)/TCCR (70.1,C) TCCR = 12
(71,A)
ACA = IF TIME<208 THEN
(SQA*0.5)+(PPA*0.25)+(LTA*0.25) ELSE IF TIME<416 THEN (SQA*0.25)+(PPA*0.5)+(LTA*0.25) ELSE
(SQA*0.25)+(PPA*0.4)+(LTA*0.35) (72,T)
PPA = GRAPH(P/CP)(0.8, 1.00), (0.84, 1.00), (0.88, 1.00), (0.92, 0.995), (0.96, 0.98), (1.00, 0.93), (1.04, 0.85), (1.08, 0.73), (1.12, 0.565), (1.16, 0.3), (1.20, 0.00)
(73,A) LTA = EDDCC (74,T)
SQA = GRAPH(Qrate)(0.00, 0.005), (0.18, 0.085), (0.36, 0.185), (0.54, 0.335), (0.72, 0.625), (0.9, 0.795), (1.08, 0.88), (1.26, 0.94), (1.44, 0.96), (1.62, 0.97), (1.80, 0.98)
(75,R) OAAR = RC*BL
(76,R) CO = (CAR+OAAR)*OQ (76.1,C) OQ =20000
(77,L) BLCO(t) = BLCO(t - dt) + (CO - COR - OTR) * dt (77.1,N) INIT BLCO = 0
(78,R) OTR = min( Maxout,BLCO*Outrate) (78.1,C) Outrate = .75
(78.2,C) Maxout = 500000
(79,L) Outsourcing(t) = Outsourcing(t - dt) + (OTR - OTSR) * dt (79.1,N) INIT Outsourcing = 0
(79.2,N) TRANSIT TIME = 12 (79.3,N) INFLOW LIMIT = INF (79.4,N) CAPACITY = INF
編號 方程式 (80,R) OTSR = CONVEYOR OUTFLOW
(81,L) BLO(t) = BLO(t - dt) + (COR - COSR) * dt (81.1,N) INIT BLO = 0
(82,R) COR = (Fullcap)/TOCFM
(83,A) Fullcap = Min(CE,MaxCE)*PUE (83.1,C) MaxCE = 6
(84,R) COSR = SRS
(85,L) PG(t) = PG(t - dt) + (COSR - PGDR) * dt (85.1,N) INIT PG = 0
(86,R) PGDR = PG/GT (86.1,C) GT = 56
(87,A) DD = IF COSR>0 THEN BLO/COSR ELSE 0 (88,C) TCPDD = 0.3
(89,A) DDQC = SMTH1(DD,TCPDD) (90,C) TCADD = 1.5
(91,A) DDAC = SMTH1(DDQC,TCADD) (92,C) TSS = 2
(93,A) COMDD = TSS
(94,T)
EDDCC = GRAPH(DDAC/COMDD)(0.00, 1.00), (0.2, 1.00), (0.4, 1.00), (0.6, 1.00), (0.8, 1.00), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.00), (1.40, 0.998), (1.60, 0.995), (1.80, 0.95), (2.00, 0.893), (2.20, 0.82), (2.40, 0.75), (2.60, 0.688), (2.80, 0.647), (3.00, 0.613), (3.20, 0.588), (3.40, 0.563), (3.60, 0.535), (3.80, 0.522), (4.00, 0.505)
(106,L) SM(t) = SM(t - dt) + (SHR - STR) * dt (106.1,N) INIT SM = 2
(107,R) SHR = max(0,HSCA)
(108,A) HSCA = ((FTM*SM)+(SLG-SM))/THS (108.1,C) SLG = 16
(108.2,C) THS = 10
(109,R) STR = (SM*FTM)/TSQ (109.1,C) TSQ = 4
(110,L) Motivation(t) = Motivation(t - dt) + (CIM) * dt (110.1,N) INIT Motivation = 80
編號 方程式
(111,T)
FTM = GRAPH(Motivation) (60.0, 0.1), (64.0, 0.0834), (68.0, 0.0689), (72.0, 0.0564), (76.0, 0.046), (80.0, 0.0384), (84.0, 0.0316), (88.0, 0.0258), (92.0, 0.0204), (96.0, 0.0145), (100, 0.01)
(112,R) CIM = IF (IM>Motivation AND Motivation>120) THEN 0 ELSE (IM-Motivation)/TCIM
(112.1,C) TCIM = 4
(113,L) SS(t) = SS(t - dt) + (ITH + SL - LTT) * dt (113.1,N) INIT SS = 330
(114,R) ITH = SHR*SNH (114.1,C) SNH = 5
(115,R) SL = MSBA*SPS (116,T)
SPS = GRAPH(ASS) (60.0, 800), (66.0, 612), (72.0, 504), (78.0, 436), (84.0, 376), (90.0, 328), (96.0, 284), (102, 252), (108, 216), (114, 152), (120, 0.00)
(117,A) ASS = SS/SM (118,R) LTT = STR*ASS
(119,A) ASBA = (MSBA*EOSM)/SM (120,A) SP = DSP*EOM*EOAP
(121,T)
DSP = GRAPH(ASS) (60.0, 0.01), (66.0, 0.0108), (72.0, 0.0128), (78.0, 0.0168), (84.0, 0.0236), (90.0, 0.039), (96.0, 0.0572), (102, 0.0696), (108, 0.0752), (114, 0.0792), (120, 0.08)
(122,T)
EOAP = GRAPH(ACA) (0.6, 0.00), (0.64, 0.18), (0.68, 0.378), (0.72, 0.534), (0.76, 0.684), (0.8, 0.78), (0.84, 0.894), (0.88, 0.984), (0.92, 1.07), (0.96, 1.13), (1.00, 1.20)
(123,T)
EOM = GRAPH(Motivation) (70.0, 0.8), (75.0, 0.852), (80.0, 0.902), (85.0, 0.942), (90.0, 0.99), (95.0, 1.04), (100, 1.08), (105, 1.13), (110, 1.17), (115, 1.19), (120, 1.20)
(124,T)
IM = GRAPH(ASBA) (0.00, 70.3), (0.01, 82.3), (0.02, 91.5), (0.03, 99.8), (0.04, 105), (0.05, 109), (0.06, 112), (0.07, 115), (0.08, 117), (0.09, 119), (0.1, 120)
(130,L) Rookie(t) = Rookie(t - dt) + (Hiring - UTS - RTOV - RLFR) * dt (130.1,N) INIT Rookie = 0
(131,R) Hiring = max(0,HCA)
編號 方程式
(132,A) HCA = (ETOV+RTOV+(LG-(Rookie+Expert)))/TLCA (132.1,C) TLCA = 3
(133,A) LG = CE*LCR (134,A) LCR = PUE/(TP/L) (135,R) RTOV = Rookie*FTOV (136,R) UTS = Rookie/RLT (136.1,C) RLT = 26
(137,L) Expert(t) = Expert(t - dt) + (UTS - ETOV - ELFR) * dt (137.1,N) INIT Expert = 60
(138,R) ETOV = Expert*FTOV
(139,R) ELFR = ABS(MIN(0,(Rookie+HCA))) (140,A) FTOV = EBT*EMT*NT
(140.1,C) NT = 0.06
(141,L) Lmotivation(t) = Lmotivation(t - dt) + (CSM) * dt (141.1,N) INIT Lmotivation = 80
(142,R) CSM = (IPM-Lmotivation)/TCSM (142.1,C) TCSM = 2
(143,T)
EMT = GRAPH(Lmotivation)(60.0, 1.30), (65.0, 1.28), (70.0, 1.23), (75.0, 1.14), (80.0, 1.00), (85.0, 0.938), (90.0, 0.888), (95.0, 0.85), (100, 0.83), (105, 0.813), (110, 0.8)
(144,T)
IPM = GRAPH(EWT)(0.8, 70.0), (0.87, 72.6), (0.94, 77.2), (1.01, 89.6), (1.08, 98.0), (1.15, 103), (1.22, 106), (1.29, 108), (1.36, 109), (1.43, 110), (1.50, 110)
(145,T)
BPOH = GRAPH(EWT)(1.00, 0.00), (1.05, 0.02), (1.10, 0.075), (1.15, 0.155), (1.20, 0.3), (1.25, 0.515), (1.30, 0.715), (1.35, 0.865), (1.40, 0.94), (1.45, 0.985), (1.50, 1.00)
(146,L) Burnout(t) = Burnout(t - dt) + (Buildup - Dissipation) * dt (146.1,N) INIT Burnout = 0
(147,R) Buildup = BPOH
(148,R) Dissipation = Burnout*DF (149,T)
DF = GRAPH(Burnout)(0.1, 0.497), (0.24, 0.426), (0.38,
0.364), (0.52, 0.326), (0.66, 0.294), (0.8, 0.272), (0.94, 0.254), (1.08, 0.241), (1.22, 0.226), (1.36, 0.211), (1.50, 0.2)
編號 方程式 (150,T)
EBT = GRAPH(Burnout)(0.00, 1.00), (0.4, 1.05), (0.8, 1.13), (1.20, 1.25), (1.60, 1.44), (2.00, 1.64), (2.40, 1.79), (2.80, 1.89), (3.20, 1.95), (3.60, 1.98), (4.00, 2.00)
(151,L) WQ(t) = WQ(t - dt) + (WQCA) * dt (151.1,N) INIT WQ = 1
(152,R) WQCA = (WQT-WQ)/TWQ (152.1,C) TWQ = 2
(153,T)
WQT = GRAPH(Burnout)(0.00, 1.00), (0.2, 0.969), (0.4, 0.932), (0.6, 0.904), (0.8, 0.882), (1.00, 0.862), (1.20, 0.846), (1.40, 0.832), (1.60, 0.818), (1.80, 0.808), (2.00, 0.8)
(154,T)
EPQY = GRAPH(WQT)(0.8, 0.801), (0.82, 0.814), (0.84, 0.83), (0.86, 0.848), (0.88, 0.867), (0.9, 0.891), (0.92, 0.919), (0.94, 0.946), (0.96, 0.969), (0.98, 0.987), (1.00, 0.995) (155,T)
EWQP = GRAPH(WQ)(0.8, 1.20), (0.9, 1.10), (1.00, 1.03), (1.10, 0.988), (1.20, 0.952), (1.30, 0.922), (1.40, 0.898), (1.50, 0.874), (1.60, 0.848), (1.70, 0.822), (1.80, 0.8)
(156,T)
EMP = GRAPH(Lmotivation)(70.0, 0.9), (74.0, 0.913), (78.0, 0.928), (82.0, 0.948), (86.0, 0.983), (90.0, 1.03), (94.0, 1.09), (98.0, 1.15), (102, 1.19), (106, 1.20), (110, 1.20)
(157,C) LPROD = 900 (158,T)
ERP = GRAPH(RR)(0.5, 1.00), (0.75, 0.997), (1.00, 0.967), (1.25, 0.911), (1.50, 0.841), (1.75, 0.796), (2.00, 0.769), (2.25, 0.743), (2.50, 0.722), (2.75, 0.706), (3.00, 0.7)
(159,A) EP = LPROD*EMP*ERP*EWQP (160,A) TP = Expert*EP+Rookie*RP (161,A) RP = EP*0.8
(162,R) RLFR = ABS(MIN(0,HCA)) (163,A) DE = (RLFR+ELFR)*DEL (163.1,C) DEL = 125000
(164,A) L = Expert+Rookie (165,A) RR = Rookie/Expert
(170,L) CE(t) = CE(t - dt) + (OOEFR3 - DR - ECSR) * dt (170.1,N) INIT CE = 3
(171,R) OOEFR3 = OOE3/(1/3*OET) (172,R) DR = CE/EL
編號 方程式 (172.1,C) EL = 364
(173,L) ED(t) = ED(t - dt) + (DR) * dt (173.1,N) INIT ED = 0
(174,L) OOE1(t) = OOE1(t - dt) + (InvestRatio - OOEFR1) * dt (174.1,N) INIT OOE1 = 0
(175,R) InvestRatio = if (CE+OOE)>6 then 0 else max(0,EAA)*CEFLE*NOT(SES)
(177,L) OOE2(t) = OOE2(t - dt) + (OOEFR1 - OOEFR2) * dt (177.1,N) INIT OOE2 = 0
(178,R) OOEFR1 = OOE1/(1/3*OET) (179,R) OOEFR2 = OOE2/(1/3*OET)
(180,L) OOE3(t) = OOE3(t - dt) + (OOEFR2 - OOEFR3) * dt (180.1,N) INIT OOE3 = 0
(181,C) OET = 17
(182,A) OOE = OOE1+OOE2+OOE3 (183,A) OEG = OETarget-OOE (184,A) OETarget = FDR*OET (185,A) FDR = FORCST(DR,4,OET) (186,A) EAA = (OEG+ECG)/ECST (186.1,C) ECST = 6
(187,A) ECG = ECT-CE
(188,A) ECT = CORF/(PUE*(1+ESR)) (189,C) ESR = 0.04
(190,C) PUE = 40000
(191,A) CORF = FORCST(CO,4,MT) (192,A) ECSR = SES*(ESQ/ESAT) (192.1,C) ESAT = 156
(192.2,C) ESQ = 2 (193,SW) SES = 0
(200,A) DVI = (PINV+WIP+FI+WFRP)*CPI+(FI+WFRP)*CIDM (202,A) CIDM = CPI*CIDMRatio
(202.1,C) CIDMRatio = 0.04
編號 方程式 (203,A) CFI = CPI+CIDM
(204,A) SQTC = SQC*COSR
(205,A) Direct_LC = L*ASAL*EWT+DE (206,C) ASAL = 8000
(207,A) OSGP = OTSR*P*Margin
(208,A) Salary_CP = Direct_LC+Indirect_LC+MSalary+SQTC (209,C) Margin = 0.025
(210,L) AR(t) = AR(t - dt) + (DVS - COLL) * dt (210.1,N) INIT AR = 30000000
(211,R) DVS = Sales_revenue (212,R) COLL = AR/TCAR (212.1,C) TCAR = 8
(213,L) Cash(t) = Cash(t - dt) + (COLL + CashIn - CashOut) * dt (213.1,N) INIT Cash = 50000000
(214,R) CashIn = CI+SalesFA+OSGP (215,A) CI = Cash*0.325/100/52
(216,R) CashOut = CashPay+STP+IntPay+DIV+Tax+Salary_CP (217,A) IntPay = STD*InteRatio
(217.1,C) InteRatio = 0.00067
(218,L) BFVA(t) = BFVA(t - dt) + (INVEST - DEPR - SalesFA) * dt (218.1,N) INIT BFVA = 70000000
(219,R) INVEST = COE*InvestRatio (220,R) SalesFA = COE*ECSR (221,C) COE = 35000000 (222,R) DEPR = DR*COE
(223,L) AP(t) = AP(t - dt) + (OB - CashPay) * dt (223.1,N) INIT AP = 50000000
(224,R) OB = DMC+IDMC+ADMEXP (225,A) DMC = CPI*PAR
(226,A) IDMC = CIDM*(PC+Failure) (227,R) CashPay = (AP/ATCP)*CashLimit (227.1,C) ATCP = 8
編號 方程式
(228,T)
CashLimit = GRAPH(Cash)(0.00, 0.00), (3e+006, 0.51), (6e+006, 0.81), (9e+006, 1.00), (1.2e+007, 1.00), (1.5e+007, 1.00), (1.8e+007, 1.00), (2.1e+007, 1.00), (2.4e+007, 1.00), (2.7e+007, 1.00), (3e+007, 1.00)
(229,L) STD(t) = STD(t - dt) + (STB - STP) * dt (229.1,N) INIT STD = 100000000
(230,R) STB = INVEST
(231,R) STP = STD/TSTP*CashLimit (231.1,C) TSTP = 364
(232,L) Equity(t) = Equity(t - dt) + (RE) * dt (232.1,N) INIT Equity = 123540000
(233,R) RE = NPRO-DIV (234,A) NPRO = BTNPRO-Tax (235,A) DIV = MAX(0, NPRO*0.2) (236,A) Asset = (DVI+Cash+BFVA+AR) (236,A) GPRO = Sales_revenue-Sales_cost (237,A) Debt = AP+STD
(237,A) Sales_cost = CFI*COSR+(Direct_LC+Indirect_LC) (238,A) Sales_revenue = COSR*P
(239,A) ASREN = SMTH1(Sales_revenue,12) (240,A) ADMEXP = ASREN*ADMEXPP (240.1,C) ADMEXPP = 0.015
(241,A) MSalary = SPAS*SM (242,C) SPAS = 11000
(243,A) Tax = max (0,BTNPRO*Tax_rate) (243.1,C) Tax_rate = 0.25
(244,C) Commission = 0 (245,A) BTNPRO =
GPRO-ADMEXP-Commission-DEPR-IntPay-MSalary+CI+OSGP (246,A) ROA = (NPRO/Asset)*Year
(246.1,C) Year = 52
編號 方程式 (255,L) CPP(t) = CPP(t - dt) + (CPPC) * dt (255,N) INIT CPP = 48
(256,R) CPPC = (PPT-CPP)/TCPPA (256.1,C) PPT = 45
(256.2,C) TCPPA = 12
(257,L) PP(t) = PP(t - dt) + (PPFC + PPAC + PPCC) * dt (257,N) INIT PP = 48
(258,R) PPCC = (CPP*(1+PPMU)-PP)/TPPA*PHSW (258.1,C) PPMU = 0.3
(259,R) PPFC = (CPP-PP)/TPPA*PFSW
(260,R) PPAC = (CPP*(1-PPDP)-PP)/TPPA*PLSW (260.1,C) PPDP = 0.2
(261,SW) PSW = 3
(261.1,SW) PHSW = if PSW=1 then 1 else 0 (261.2,SW) PFSW = if PSW=2 then 1 else 0 (261.3,SW) PLSW = if PSW=3 then 1 else 0 (262,C) TPPA = 12
(263,L) CMP(t) = CMP(t - dt) + (MPPC) * dt (263,N) INIT CMP = 210
(264,R) MPPC = (CPI*(1+NMPFT)-CMP)/TCMPA (264.1,C) NMPFT = 0.05
(264.2,C) TCMPA = 12 (265,C) CPI = 205
(266,L) MP(t) = MP(t - dt) + (MPFC + MPAC + MPCC) * dt (266,N) INIT MP = 210
(267,R) MPCC = (CPI*(1+HPFT)-MP)/TMPA*PHSW (267.1,C) HPFT = 0.08
(268,R) MPFC = (CMP-MP)/TMPA*PFSW
(269,R) MPAC = (CPI*(1+LPFT)-MP)/TMPA*PLSW (269.1,C) LPFT = 0.02
(270,C) TMPA = 12 (271,A) P = MP+PP (272,A) CP = CMP+CPP (273,A) Prate = P/CP
編號 方程式
(273,L) CQ(t) = CQ(t - dt) + (CQIF1 + CQIF2 - CQOF) * dt (273,N) INIT CQ = 0.5
(274,R) CQOF = CQ*CQTF (275,T)
CQTF = GRAPH(CQDST)(0.00, 0.00), (0.1, 0.03), (0.2, 0.055), (0.3, 0.08), (0.4, 0.105), (0.5, 0.14), (0.6, 0.2), (0.7, 0.28), (0.8, 0.405), (0.9, 0.64), (1, 1.00)
(276,C) CQDST = if time<260 then CQ/CQCAP else 0 (277,C) CQCAP = 2000000
(278,R) CQIF1 = CQ*GRT
(278.1,C) GRT = IF TIME<260 THEN 0.0018 ELSE 0 (279,R) CQIF2 = (CQTAG-CQ)/TCQA
(279.1,C) CQTAG = IF TIME<260 THEN 0 ELSE 1 (281.1,C) TCQA = 52
(282,C) QTAG = 1 (283,A) Qrate = Q/CQ
(284,L) Q(t) = Q(t - dt) + (QFC + QAC + QCC) * dt (284,N) INIT Q = 0.5
(285,R) QCC = (QTAG-Q)/TQA*QCSW (286,R) QFC = (CQ-Q)/TQA*QFSW (287,R) QAC = QStock/TQA*QASW (288,SW) QSW = 1
(288.1,SW) QCSW = IF QSW=3 THEN 1 ELSE 0 (288.2,SW) QFSW = IF QSW=2 THEN 1 ELSE 0 (288.3,SW) QASW = IF QSW=1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 (289,C) TQA = 26
(290,L) QStock(t) = QStock(t - dt) + (Qinflow - QAC) * dt (290,N) INIT QStock = 0
(291,R) Qinflow = (QTAG-Q)/TQA
(292,A) TOCFM = smth1(COadj,TCOA) (292.1,C) TCOA = 4
(293,T)
COadj = GRAPH(TCAR)(4.00, 0.751), (4.80, 0.808), (5.60, 0.845), (6.40, 0.873), (7.20, 0.893), (8.00, 0.915), (8.80, 0.934), (9.60, 0.953), (10.4, 0.97), (11.2, 0.986), (12.0, 1.00)
編號 方程式 (294,A) CPIF = CPIadj*CPI
(295,T)
CPIadj = GRAPH(ATCP)(4.00, 0.00), (4.80, 0.00), (5.60, 0.001), (6.40, 0.002), (7.20, 0.00315), (8.00, 0.00442), (8.80, 0.00592), (9.60, 0.0075), (10.4, 0.00937), (11.2, 0.012), (12.0, 0.015)
(296,A) Indirect_LC = IASAL*IndL (296.1,C) IASAL = 14400
(297,T)
IndL = GRAPH(L)(50.0, 30.9), (75.0, 47.5), (100, 62.9), (125, 76.3), (150, 89.4), (175, 101), (200, 109), (225, 115), (250, 118), (275, 120), (300, 120)
(298,A) SQC = PPT*SQR*Qrate (298.1,C) SQR = 0.08
(299,T)
DAR1 = GRAPH(Debt/Asset)(0.00, 1.00), (0.08, 1.00), (0.16, 0.99), (0.24, 0.965), (0.32, 0.885), (0.4, 0.715), (0.48, 0.39), (0.56, 0.165), (0.64, 0.07), (0.72, 0.03), (0.8, 0.00)
(300,T)
DAR2 = GRAPH(Debt/Asset)(0.00, 1.00), (0.1, 1.00), (0.2, 0.99), (0.3, 0.965), (0.4, 0.885), (0.5, 0.715), (0.6, 0.39), (0.7, 0.165), (0.8, 0.07), (0.9, 0.03), (1, 0.00)
(301,T)
DAR3 = GRAPH(Debt/Asset)(0.00, 1.00), (0.12, 1.00), (0.24, 0.99), (0.36, 0.965), (0.48, 0.885), (0.6, 0.715), (0.72, 0.39), (0.84, 0.165), (0.96, 0.07), (1.08, 0.03), (1.20, 0.00)
(302,SW) CESW = 2
(302.1,SW) CESW1 = IF CESW=1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 (302.2,SW) CESW2 = IF CESW=2 THEN 1 ELSE 0 (303,A) CEFLE = CEFLE1+CEFLE2+CEFLE3 (303.1,A) CEFLE1 = DAR1*CESW1
(303.2,A) CEFLE2 = DAR2*CESW2 (303.3,A) CEFLE3 = DAR3*CESW3
(303.3,SW) CESW3 = IF CESW=3 THEN 1 ELSE 0
B.變人名稱&單位&設定說明一覽表 (依英文字母排序)
模組 變人縮寫 變人英文名稱 變人中文名 程式編號 單位 設定說明
市場競爭 AAE Attraction bring about adopt effect
吸引力引起顧用率的
乘人 (68,T) 無單位
當吸引力產生好的口碑，會提高顧客的顧用率，個案的客戶當 中，最佳的情況下五個客戶可能會有一個介紹新客戶庫我，而3 個介紹來的客戶可能只有一個會進入量產，約1/5*1/3=1/15 的客 戶是透過平有客戶對我們產品產生的吸引力，展轉口耳相傳而 來。
市場競爭 ABA Attraction bring about
adopt 吸引力引起的顧用率 (67,A) 無單位 市場競爭 ABL Attraction bring about
brand loyalty
吸引力引起的品牌忠
誠度 (69.1,T) 無單位 當實際相對吸引力低於0.85 調，就會對客戶的忠誠度產生衝擊，
吸引力越差，忠誠度就會越低。
市場競爭 AC Available Customer 有效顧客 (50,L) 訂單人 對市場提供之產品，有興趣、有意願合作、且可接近之企業組合。
市場競爭 ACA Actual customer
attraction 實際相對吸引力 (71,A) 吸引力
財務 ADMEXP Administrative expenses 管理費用 (240,A) 元/庫
通常管理費用有基人固定支出，此處所說的管理是指財務、人 資、關務、總務、工務、行政…等公用部門的支出，他會隨著公 司規模越大，費用越高。
財務 ADMEXPPAdministrative expenses
percentage 管理費用百分離 (240.1,C) 無單位 為了方便計算管理費用，以銷貨收入的某一百分離來計算。
市場競爭 AMS Available in market size 有效市場大小 (60,A) 訂單人
模組 變人縮寫 變人英文名稱 變人中文名 程式編號 單位 設定說明
財務 AP Accounts payable 應平帳款 (223,L) 元 因為人模型自 1995 年模擬，所以應平貨款不會為零。
財務 AR Accounts receivable 應收帳款 (210,L) 元 因為人模型自1995 年模擬，所以應收帳款不會為零。
財務 ASAL Average salary 平平薪水 (206,C) 元/人/庫
雖然目工基人月薪資為17,600 元，但是公司還要提撥目健保費，
年終獎金，績效獎金，退休金等，公司實際支平的費用幾乎原基 人薪資的2 倍
市場-人
力 ASBA Average sales bring about adopt
平平每一行銷人員引
起的顧用率 (119,A) 訂單人/庫/人 財務 ASREN Average of sales
revenue 平平銷貨收入 (239,A) 元/庫 市場-人
力 ASS Average sales skills 平平銷售技巧 (117,A) 訂單人/庫
財務 Asset Asset 資產 (236,A) 元
財務 ATCP Average time for cash
payment 平平平平期 (227.1,C) 元/庫
供應商能接受的平平期隨著供、製的關係而有所不同，如果是賣 方市場大於買方市場，通常平款期是短的，甚至於有些日人廠 商，必製要先收到LC 後，才安排生產與出貨等作業；反之，如 果是買方市場大於賣方市場，因為供庫多，廠商為了接單，可接 受較常的平款期，通常平平自收到貨物開始計算到真正的平款，
平款期約二個月。通常平款都是月結固定某日，所以又可多交後 1~3 庫的調調。
模組 變人縮寫 變人英文名稱 變人中文名 程式編號 單位 設定說明 市場競爭 BL Brand loyalty 品牌忠誠度 (57,A) 無單位
製造-服
務 BLCO Backlog customer order 待處理的客戶訂單 (77,L) 組 如果真不合宜的訂單，還是會適當的拒絕客戶。
市場競爭 BLO Backlog order 積壓訂單 (81,L) 組/庫 剛開始並沒有訂單。
目工 BPOH Burnout per overtime
hour 每超調之崩耗 (145,T) 無單位
個案公司的生產是顧用三加制，即一加共八小調，通常加加在兩 小調以內，人員還能負荷，超過四小調以上，效率和品質會逐步 滑落，崩耗以 0~1 的強度來表示，1 就代表超出 1 倍的正常工調。
財務 BTNPRO Before tax net profits 稅前純股 (245,A) 元/庫 目工 Buildup Buildup 崩耗增加率 (147,R) 無單位 目工 Burnout Burnout 崩耗 (146,L) 無單位 財務 BVFA Book vaule fixed
assets 固定資產 (218,L) 元 設備經過攤提之後，於1995 年調，廠房+3 條主要的生產線共約 一億台幣。
市場競爭 CAR Customer adopt rate 顧客顧用率 (52,R) 訂單人/庫
財務 Cash Cash 平金 (213,L) 元
財務 CashIn Cash inflow 平金流入 (214,R) 元/庫
財務 CashLimit Cash limit 平金限制 (228,T) 無單位 員工的薪資是不能積欠的，當Cash 低於一仟萬，則先停止平材 料的貨款。
模組 變人縮寫 變人英文名稱 變人中文名 程式編號 單位 設定說明 財務 CashOut Cash outflow 平金流出 (216,R) 元/庫
模組 變人縮寫 變人英文名稱 變人中文名 程式編號 單位 設定說明 財務 CashOut Cash outflow 平金流出 (216,R) 元/庫